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0:07
Hi my name is Jeremy Sandifer and I'm a Research and Extension Associate in the College of Agriculture, Community, and the Sciences and today we're going to talk about the use of geospatial technology and helping us understand the relationship between climate and severe weather.
0:24
So the agenda for the presentation is to briefly explore the relationship between climate and severe weather. We'll talk a little bit about the role extension has to play and helping the public think about these issues. We'll explore a few key African Americans and weather science and modeling in the early days of this science. We'll examine closely the differences between climate and weather and we'll look at some key technology that helps us really visualize
0:54
both the processes and how they're changing over time. Then we'll end with a few notes on how you can take action at home to be informed about this issue. So the role of extension and doing this kind of work is in promoting the study of human and environmental issues at the local and the global scale and of course everything in between. What we hope to do is to reach stakeholders with accurate and truthful information that they can use to help make decisions
1:29
that are sustainable for either their operations at home or farm operations or land management or whatever kind of of activities you may be into. What we hope to do is enhance the public's environmental literacy so that they can develop critical thinking skills especially as it comes to thinking about how we manage our issues in the future.
1:57
So extension we really create a lot of opportunities for the public to be able to come and interact with where the science has taken place and just to get out into the real world and see how the community is interacting with science and business and agriculture. We just try to create a lot of learning opportunities so students can get the experience and just see this stuff going. Hopefully so that they can choose to pursue
2:25
it you know as a career path but if nothing else just to get a feel for what's actually going on.
2:34
So earth day itself is real is is really within this this the same mission. It's a day set aside to appreciate the earth's environments and and how important they are and really how the issues and the decisions that we make about how we manage the land impacts how safe and healthy it is.
2:59
So just as an example just to show kind of how earth day came out and post World War II was a boom time in the United States. It was I was increasing industrialization going on it was all kind of products being you know created and used out and as we sprawled out from the cities into the surrounding countryside. We had to compete with with the wildlife that you know was living out there at the time and one particular troublesome chemical that was
3:33
developed that was highly effective at combating these pests was DDT. And DDT worked wonderful for all kinds of pests that carry disease but, what they found was as it was applied over time it would stay in the environment and, as one animal ate the next animal it would accumulate and then it would basically concentrate and poison all of the environment. If you'll just look at the little example there in the bottom left corner lots of of birds that you know have to develop
4:10
protective eggs for their young these chemicals literally stole material from from the eggs and they simply couldn't survive. And thanks to Rachel Carson's book silent spring this was kind of the beginning of the environmental movement where the public was being informed about how their decisions impacted the environment.
4:34
So this day is is you know is meant to celebrate that and our role in it today is is to explore how we're using geospatial technology you know to to characterize these issues.
4:51
So, the beginnings of earth day as I mentioned was right on the tail of World War II and in the beginning of the sprawling out of America and since it was wartime and it involved the movement and lots of logistics the weather was important. So if you're flying a plane it's very important that you're aware of what the temperature and the moisture and the wind profiles are so that you can safely you know move materials from point a to point b.
5:22
So at this time this is the very beginnings of what would later come to be known as the weather bureaus that we have now. This is the earliest outfit weather and weather clearance station and this is in Tuskegee, Alabama and these are some of the earliest pioneers in meteorology. Both in terms of understanding the weather and then later being able to
5:49
understand how it functioned first of all and then how it changed over time. So here
6:00
at the same time earth day is starting this is at the same time where the the first atmospheric general circulation models being put together Dr. Warren Washington of Oregon State University was was among the many folks that that worked on these these very first models that showed how the earth
6:21
in you know as it received energy from the sun moved moisture and temperature you know around the globe. Those earliest models still today support the highest resolution models that we use today to understand our world.
6:50
So what is the difference between climate and weather weather is the conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time. When you go outside or perhaps over the day
7:03
and we can measure this generally in terms of temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, etc. We measure this using a simple little climate station as you see here in the diagram. Now some of the stations can be much more complicated larger more expensive but they don't have to be and these stations are placed all over the world and they measure these parameters and this is the data that feeds those visualizations that I just showed you in the previous slide.
7:34
Climate on the other hand is these atmospheric conditions but over a long period of time okay and how these conditions change over time, over long periods of time is what we've come to know as climate change. We know climate change in terms of increasing temperatures increasingly intense downpours, rainfall, rising sea levels, thawing permafrost, etc.
8:08
So severe weather and we'll take these one at a time severe weather you know it when you see it
8:16
so while there may be proper classifications where after the fact they're able to go back through the record and categorize storms. Severe weather is simply any setup of weather that is destructive to quality of life. So if it impacts your day in a negative way we call that severe weather. Further if it includes damage to real property or real disruption in the lives of those affected. Like a massive flood, massive tornadoes,
8:48
wildfires, hurricanes, and drought. So these affect all you know basically all of the world, all of the U.S., and certainly all of these are threats here in Kentucky.
9:04
Just this winter we've been getting a lot of severe weather in the form of extreme rainfall
9:11
and this is just a satellite image taken from space about 400 miles away and you can see it late January while it is very moist on the surface one month later you can see all these basins are filled with water
9:30
and this setup continued for weeks after. So to put that in context severe weather in 2020 there were at least 22 episodes of severe weather that cost at least 1 billion dollars to clean up that was just last year.
9:54
How has that changed over time the simple graph here if you look on the x-axis from 1980 to 2020.
10:02
On the y-axis you can see the number of events so the boxes as they're stacked up the height of the box is equal to the number of events.
10:14
Then the line which may not be so clear to see here is the amount spent
10:22
on those storms those billion dollar storms,
10:26
and the gist of it is that just this last year we spent about 120 billion dollars
10:34
cleaning up after severe weather. In 2017 alone the total was almost 425 billion dollars. So the scale of the problem is very huge and the chart also highlights just as a note that by far severe storms take the lion's share of this so this is thunderstorm, heavy precipitation, and generally fast flash flooding.
11:05
Climate on the other hand
11:08
like we said is a. Climate is the long-term record of of the weather and in in terms of long-term change a primary indicator is air temperature as it's measured at about two meters which is roughly six feet. While I have some facts here to show how temperatures have changed over time NASA has provided this much more interesting set of images here that that show how the temperature record has changed over time. So on the left-hand side there again on the x-axis
11:49
you have from years 1880 all the way to the just a few years ago about 2017 or so. What they're showing is global temperature anomalies anomalies with respect to the 1950 to 1980 30-year climate mean which is just a a way of saying that over the course of 30 years there's some mean temperature. So we set that to zero and year by year we can see how the mean temperature has changed relative to that artificial zero right and over you know over that
12:25
that time span temperatures have increased roughly one degree Celsius and that's for the globe.
12:33
Now on the right hand side this is the same data but it's being summarized by the month so the idea here is to show you what the seasonal variation is of these increases over time. So some months the temperatures has increased over this time frame you know more than one degree Celsius
12:56
and in terms of agriculture and land management depending on you know when these key parameters of temperature and precipitation are changing these could have drastic outcomes to what how you're able to manage your land.
13:13
The other primary indicator of climate change is precipitation and precipitation overall is increasing it's increasing basically all over the globe but not by a lot not by a lot
13:28
eight hundredths of an inch per per decade over over the century, but the big problem isn't so much the total rainfall it's the patterns it's the patterns that bring the rainfall. So especially since 1980 the prevalence of extreme precipitation events has gone up way up and all cities are are really feeling the effects these river cities like Louisville and Cincinnati they've really been on top of this issue over the last little while because
13:59
the infrastructure we have in place to manage drainage and river flooding and stream flooding and that kind of stuff was built at a time when the prevalence of these type of events wasn't wasn't widely recognized anyway. So in terms of climate change more rain.
14:23
Of course I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention space weather. So space weather is certainly it's not as mainstream as the previous two types of of of weather and and climate that we've been discussing but it's very important especially in terms of of property and quality of life. So we all know that the sun provides most of the light energy that's available for the vegetation on earth to do photosynthesis but at the same time as this light leaves the leaves
14:58
the surface of the sun it's it's accompanied by what we call plasma and this is just matter that's left over from the nuclear reaction that is the sun, okay. This is the solar wind and and we can measure this stuff and it gives us an idea of what how the activity on on the sun is. Well periodically these much larger these much larger eruptions happen called coronal mass ejections and and these are magnetic storms and and when they dissipate
15:31
all the material that you know was involved in and those you know those ejections is thrust out.
15:41
Nasa has a lot of a lot of missions that that are studying this and looking at this because that material when it's when it's cast out through the solar system just a few minutes after leaving the sun it arrives on earth and when it crashes into our atmosphere
15:57
it does some beautiful things. So we know the aurora borealis the northern and the southern lights and and that's the electrical energy being dissipated into the the uppermost parts of the atmosphere but, some of the negative things is as it as it smashes through space you know it can damage the satellites that are up there and the sensitive electronics that are taking all these measurements. When during bigger storms it can create voltage
16:25
and power surges in our in our power lines especially the long distance transmission lines
16:31
and over time it can even corrode steel pipelines that are that are buried in the ground.
16:40
While it's still very much an open area of research there are there's some indications that it certainly interacts and impacts the the atmosphere.
16:56
So to pull us back to our original question about the relationship between severe weather and climate.
17:05
No single event or no single set of events even can be attributed to climate change per se all right, and to really explore this this exact issue the American Meteorological Society every year will choose the 10, 12, 15 largest severe weather events, and they will look at all of the evidence that could could be used to summarize how the frequency of these events have changed or what parameters like temperature over time could have contributed to some of these individual storms.
17:49
The most recent version out now is is 2019 and and it covers like the hurricane that was that went through Puerto Ricco and again while you can attribute these single events to climate change. They certainly offer a lot of evidence that talks about how if the climate engine you know changes then the likelihood of extreme weather is changing depending on where you are. So we can certainly say that vulnerability to increase severe weather is in large part based on the geography.
18:26
We're going to turn now to Demetrio and he's going to highlight for us another couple of examples of how we use this technology to monitor storms. Good morning everybody, my name is Demetrio Zourarakis. I welcome you to Earth Day 2021 at Kentucky State University.
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I am attached to the geospatial program at Kentucky State University in different capacities.
18:51
I'm an adjunct at the University of Kentucky. Also I do some contract work in the private sector and public sector. I have some 20-some years of experience with geospatial gis and remote sensing. So we today we are trying to show the influence of climate and weather in natural resources and give you some tools to discover data pertaining to those very important areas.
19:23
So we have a set of slides today and we have a few demos that we're going to show you. My first slide here shows how weather can be monitored from space and this has been going on for many decades now, but it's kind of a given that people would open just the newspaper the back part of the page of the newspaper or open up their weather feed or service on their phone and look at the map okay. So everything is about maps really in a way it's everything happens somewhere and spatial
20:00
but all these data are coming in are from craft that are orbiting the earth and observing
20:09
taking measurements through a different means we're going to talk about that in a bit. So right now we have the national oceanic and atmospheric administration has weather satellites that pretty much rain on us billions of observations petabytes of data. Every day, every week, every month I mean data are piling up and we can make
20:34
contrast studies change detection how the weather is changing, how the climate is changing, and that's that's a that's what we're gonna show some of that today. So all the weather forecasts and all the warnings are based on models that they have that are that get data that are fed from the sensors that are onboard the satellite. So one of the examples I chose for today is the NOAA-20 which is a joint polar satellite system okay. So we have an acronym soup of letters today
21:15
just agency letters and all kinds of things, but we try to spell out every single one of them. Okay, so the national weather service has this satellite as the source of information the sensors about the spacecraft are instruments that measure something usually is either on the
21:35
some type of electromagnetic radiation that comes from the earth and as you know the we don't have enough time to go into a typical remote sensing class, but we're going to talk about a little bit about visible data some sort of radio
21:52
microwave sounder which is like a raider then some infrared sounder and then some
22:01
clouds and earth radiant energy system. They're all listed here all these sensors they measure atmospheric terrestrial and oceanic conditions where via different parts of the spectrum okay and then they the models designed by physicists combine all this all this information and create data like ocean temperature, atmospheric temperature, atmospheric humidity, or vapor content. So here you have for example on this map shows
22:39
the temperature of the atmosphere based on a certain channel. Like sensors have different channels like your radio has your cell phone has channels the radio has channels. So in the end the product is a map it's a map of say vapor content of the atmosphere temperature or oceanic temperature, surface of the ocean. So right now we have the the sea and land surface temperatures map the vegetation map the clouds water vapor and rainfall it's not a nice cover
23:12
so all these products have been increasing in diversity over the years and they are available for the public to download us either the raw data or the model data that they come up with. Some of them are very very visible like fire locations and smoke plumes, volcanic ash, and gas I'm sure you have seen some of these maps some of these images from the space station.
23:39
More subtle it's atmospheric temperature like that this map shows right here right
23:43
so is the earth getting warmer well that's the only way to answer is just measure it somehow right well this is how we measure it from space.
23:52
So again the NOAA 20 shows a dramatic change in temperatures over North America and these are the maps right here right. We would not have been able to make this map without the satellites that NOAA has they NOAA 20 particularly. So right the red the red you know the that's the symbiology at the bottom and of course you know the the degrees kelvin of course...
24:22
and the deviations were normal.
24:29
Another way to another thing that NOAA has is the geostationary satellites for example every time there's a hurricane we wonder how they know when the hurricane is gonna make landfall and where it's originating from and what the track is of the hurricane. So
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we want to go in there to this page and that's on the Facebook is a Facebook page that has a video where it shows you how geostationary satellite works
24:59
it's parked in orbit and it's always with the earth. So we're going to go to
25:07
this page now. So here we have the earth and we have the sun illuminating the earth as it turns so remember that the satellite.
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The satellite and the earth are turning together
25:25
that's why this this effect is visible now. If you pay attention you see that the the weather systems are moving it's because I'm fixed in a fixed position with respect to the earth. So I can see this movement that's relative to us so you see the let's see.
25:45
You see you see this cloud systems moving and changing location right there. Always remember that there's military and civilian missions and there's the satellites will carry sensors that are
26:06
intended for both purposes. So we have here the military weather satellite as well. So there's different agencies that that measure not only earth weather and climate but also space weather right we will not go into that but it's on the news already about solar flares and solar storms. So whether when we say weather and climate it has broader implications that we know and all these satellites all these missions have satellites which are the vehicles
26:33
and the vehicles the platforms have sensors instruments so I gave you some examples of that.
26:44
One of the the clear results of weather is weather events and we are going to try to show you a little bit more of how remotely sensed data from the air not only from space but from the air inside the atmosphere right from a plane and say an aerial a mapping camera mounted on an airplane can see some of the disturbances that are created by weather. In this particular case we are going to go to a tornado tracking web mapping applications the tool. So this web tornado
27:24
tracking tool that is that's shown on the screen is a map right mapping application that allows me to choose the different tornado intensities and the different time periods. So some people want to see all the tornadoes that ever happened in Kentucky so we are going to just change this to
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this time period. They do happen and they're very frequent over the period of time but we're going to just focus today on the March 2nd 2012 events,
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my birthday. I remember driving back from Milwaukee from a conference and the weather was really violent and pushing east and these are the tornado tracks reported for that for that day. So we're gonna we're gonna focus on the
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on the eastern part of the state the west liberty tornado and the Magoffin county tornadoes. These are the tracks that were reported by people okay. So one way to to monitor and inspect and discover the effects of weather or climate on on natural systems is to compare different
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area photography or imagery from different dates. So in this particular case I chose the 2010 to 2012 comparison the tornadoes happened in 2012. So this image is here from the national aerial imagery program that the USDA the U.S. Department of Agriculture has they fly the state every other year and these are four band meaning that they are multi-spectral data. Now we don't have too much time to explain what that means, but imagine that you have red green and blue colors or brands
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and then a near-infrared band attached we're not going to go into near-infrared full score photography here, but we're going to use the the true color real natural color imagery in this particular case you have this too. So we're going to focus on the eastern part of the state like we said before those those tornadoes were devastating for a community and was liberty and others. So the application the web mapping application we're going to use
29:50
today is the ArcGIS online application, okay. So it's an sv product very common in the market very common everywhere any I mean all the all the story maps you make you know our esri technology and this is the one that anybody can make a map if you know where to find the services. So
30:08
here I have a map and I have a table of contents that shows me the layers I want to I'm going to use I want to use a 2010 and 2012 imagery for the whole state like I said true color, and
30:23
I can go in here and turn and turn different images on and we have amazon a little bit and we have the the 2012 versus 2010 comparison. So if you zoom out a little further out not that far out it's it's going to refresh the image in a second there it is. So this is a tornado track right here
30:56
so if you were to just look at the original data from three years before that
31:02
those are trees that are missing this is forest that's missing along that line and there's other tracks that are one in Magoffin county further south if I can do this.
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You see some these are all mined out areas but you see one here one track
31:30
right there. So there were other tornado tracks that were not reported because there weren't people seeing it so maybe these are these events are more common than we think and this is a way to really quantify the devastation. One of the important things that one has to remember is that many of the data are in the cloud the cloud they are they are published for everybody to consume as services. We find these in this type of thing this it's a ArcGIS services directory courtesy of
32:04
the Commonwealth Office of Technology Division of Geographic Information Systems and one can could find imagery many types of imagery this the ones I'm using are these two right here. So when I go to the this page it will show me the metadata which is the data about the data so it tells me what was acquired when what is acquired with what camera what plane etc. etc. etc. So
32:32
it's very important to know what the provenance of the data is okay where the the data come from so we can assert its authoritativeness you know the authoritative data same with the satellite data. The satellite data have been vetted the the sensors were designed to measure certain things and then they were tested on the earth and then they were put in space okay, so, and and they check their accuracy all the time so if the sensor goes bad
33:00
like your phone goes bad or your camera goes bad they know how to modify the data so the data still are good. Another best kept secret in Kentucky the Kentucky Mesonet. The Kentucky Mesonet is a network of weather stations that eventually can tell us something about the climate change right on the ground. So it's a high density metro scale network of automated environmental monitoring stations meaning that they're there while we sleep acquiring data some of them have cameras
33:30
I don't know where they're pointing at the sky but remember that there's some cameras that catch meteors and bullets at night okay so so it's like you can catch all kinds of phenomena, weather phenomena. So this provides opportunities for a western Kentucky University student employees and interns to work side by side with professional staff. So this one is here shown is it the one in Todd county we're going to show a map with the locations in a minute, so.
34:02
So this is a published paper it's a scientific paper that talks about the Mesonet and it gives a little more detail. So weather and climate observing network with redundant sensors I mean we have many many different sensors that measure sometimes the same thing. So 71 locations across Kentucky they measure temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and wind speed and direction every five
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minutes. We saw some moisture and soil temperature measure every 30 minutes.
34:33
So in addition it operates a camera at selected locations all observations are transmitted via cellular modem every five minutes and become available to the general public and I want to show you that in a minute through the world where within seconds after arrival.
34:50
So these are examples. Okay so these are these stations are located in kind of representative sites usually farms open spaces or pastures that they are not they are fenced off so that no one can disturb them or vandalize them but they have been cases.
35:09
So these are the examples Owen county, Carroll county, Mason and Campbell county. So the surfaces are you know pretty consistent you know they tried not to have like near trees forest or the age of the forest you know or in a on a weather corridor where wind you know wind speed is crazy now just so this there's a method there again I'm not a meteorologist disclaimer.
35:41
So whether on the on the ground what do they measure they have all these all this smorgasbord of atmospheric conditions or parameters. And they have a sensor and the sensor here is
35:55
a thermometric platinum resistance thermometer that measures what the official air temperature measurement that's an average of three prt sensors located in the finance period radiation shield. So these are standardized observations these are these are calibrated okay so we can compare them it's not like you know
36:16
stick my finger out and see how how cold it is or the where the wind is growing from all that. So
36:24
and you know dramatic example of a time series for a two parameters one of them is temperature and solar radiation in Christian county during the eclipse the 2017 eclipse
36:38
so they turn off the light so the temperature dropped right.
36:48
The Mesonet webpage the homepage allows you to interact with data and download data and request data okay to your heart's content there's tons of data right. So one thing we're going to show here is the way that one can select the data by county, by you know by date, by a
37:13
type of atmospheric variable. So here we have the for Warren county which is the way the the default is Warren county they're their own station near the university at the university probably. Where they have they show you a graph with the temperature air temperature,
37:32
dew point relative humidity so three variables these data points are gathered every five minutes. You can see how there's a trend the today is the first sunny day in a while temperature is rising humidity is dropping and so this is one way of looking at the data.
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We can explore by county and then we go down to Franklin county here they are not sorted alphabetically because they're different epochs on the Mesonet where they have been adding stations
38:10
and not all stations are compared. So I'm going to go to the monthly summaries here
38:15
and I can see the count is Franklin county Frankfort f7s is the relative location
38:22
that longs for them at the elevation time and here's your temperature for different dates and so you can explore different years and different months.
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February was a really brutal month
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so we had we had single digits here and all that so anyway for those of you who do time series and analysis on climate meteorology this is a wealth of information.
38:58
Another way I can interact is the graphs which you saw a minute ago this is the graph
39:03
for Warren but I can choose,
39:09
Franklin
39:13
Franklin county this is outside this this location. We have the temperature going up up up toward the 70s and the humidity going down, down, down, and dew point kind of staying the same.
39:31
We have quite an unlimited supply of humidity from the previous rain and all that so. Another way of interacting is with a map one of the one of the variables that we they measure is a wind speed and you can see how how they attach a vector a direction to each location so we know that
39:55
higher wind speeds this is one of those days when you could see the wind increasing a some sort of front or or changes in the conditions so you have you have higher wind speeds
40:09
in different parts of the state and you know half of the state or 40 percent of the state is quiet you know single digit wind speed miles per hour whatever ems per hour. So
40:23
another way to the way to consume this data right is either you go and download a table or you and you make your own map, or you can have an RSS feed, Real Simple Syndication, that's what it stands for that that makes you allows you to bring in the data every five minutes into your web application
40:50
or any application that you have for example you can create an app on your for a cell phone that consumes that feed and makes and puts the data on a map and this is what we're going to see next.
41:05
So weather on the ground from Kentucky Mesonet but now we have the the folks that at state government come with technology division of geographic information that created a Kentucky weather map application. So we're going to go there so Kentucky weather mapping right with a feed directly from different different services from from NOAA and national weather service and the Kentucky Mesonet. So if we were to
41:36
to zoom in and click on Frankfort.
41:42
We see the conditions right now every five minutes this is refreshed remember that. So we have we have here on this scrolling scroll bar on the side we have the time stamp
41:54
March 16, 3:10 pm, we have the location the that long to the six digits, right, elevation wind speed, solar radiation, wind direction, relative humidity, air temperature, etc. and if you click on the on the more information it will take you to the Mesonet.
42:18
So this is the result of not only weather from space because all these all these radar data are on the ground but the humidity data also are from from space and and they can measures of wind direction and from the ground the ground the weather on the ground from the Mesonet. So we want to thank you for the time and we hope that you can explore all these slides have live links
42:46
and they're current so if you have any questions you can contact me or the Dr. Buddhi Gyawali at the Geospatial program at Kentucky State University and happy Earth Day 2021 everybody.
43:00
So now that we've explored the science behind severe weather climate change what can you do at home. How can you participate in helping push
43:14
environmental literacy. Well you can start by knowing your risk
43:19
where you are, where you live, where you work, knowing the risk is half the battle,
43:29
and once you know your risk you can start to take mitigation and protection efforts. You can install safety features at home or on the farm try to mitigate against rough rain, or high temperatures, freezing temperatures, whatever. The key thing is to monitor the patterns and the setups and and to know the type of weather that your area has experienced and what it's likely to experience in
43:51
the near future. We're going to provide a handout a little exercise that that's going to walk you through using some of the applications that are available. Some available from from the government agencies that are in charge of this and some that we've built in-house at Kentucky State.
44:16
So we'll be providing the exercise and we'll go to some of the some of the archives for the historical data. You'll draw data to understand how storms and the types of storms how they've changed over time and how the frequency and the magnitude of them have changed over time. Then we'll point you to other applications that'll show what the projected risk is that moving moving in the future. You'll complete these exercises and hopefully you'll be inspired
44:49
to to do additional projects and we stand ready to help you find your way through that. Lastly
44:59
everything that we do is very expensive requires a lot of money both for the staff and the students involved and the equipment that we need and we all the work here that we've presented was funded in at least in part by national science foundation reviving and strengthening stem instructional research programs increase minority participation at Kentucky State and preparing the pipeline of next generation stem professionals. All right so I hope that's been informative as
45:28
a reminder my name is Jeremy Sandifer you can reach me at jeremy.sandifer@kysu.edu. If we can help you in any way to explore some of the concepts and the information that we shared or to think about how you could start new projects either at home or in the classroom.
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